Daily report
Monday 26 October 2026
5 stories
Published 09:25 CET
A Monday before a central-bank week: the session prices Trump's pause on an Iran strike, a bitcoin dip under $80,000 before Wednesday's Fed decision, and the run-up to the Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reports.
Market snapshot
Calendar
- 26 OctVerizon Communications Inc. earningsEPS $1.27 · EPS $1.21 a year ago
- 26 OctWelltower Inc. earningsEPS $1.64 · EPS $1.34 a year ago
- 28 OctFed decision, press conference at 19:30
- 28 OctMicrosoft and Alphabet report
- 29 OctUS GDP and core PCE
- 29 OctAmazon reports
Today’s stories
Open a story for context and sourcescommoditiesHotOil slips as Trump holds off on an Iran strikeOil fell from near six-month highs after Trump said he will not attack Iran today, per Reuters and the FT
What happened
US stock futures rose at the open after Trump said he will not attack Iran today, with WTI down 1.5% at the time, per @KobeissiLetter. Saudi Arabia's defence minister, Pakistan's army chief and Turkey's intelligence head are heading to Tehran for talks, per Javier Blas, while Saudi-Houthi fighting kept Gulf shares lower on Sunday, per Reuters; the WTI perp is 101.33 (-1.78% over 24 h).
What it means today
Iran and Houthi headlines reach the WTI perp at any hour; Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish officials meet in Tehran today, and the 14:30 CET US open prices the pause. The WTI perp on the account trades Iran headlines around the clock, and oil feeds the inflation and rate path the Fed prices on Wednesday, so it reaches the stock index perps and gold too.
Running story: Gulf oil supply · since 2 Oct
cryptoHotBitcoin slips under $80,000 before the FedBitcoin slipped under $80,000 as traders de-risk ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting, per CoinDesk
What happened
Bitcoin dipped under $80,000 after a weekend flush that swept the local lows, per Daan Crypto, and CoinDesk ties the move to de-risking before the Fed. The BTC perp is 79985 (-0.47% over 24 h), with funding at 0.00056%/h and open interest at $3.36B.
What it means today
Hourly funding runs through the 14:30 CET US open and into Wednesday's 19:00 CET Fed decision, the first event that can reset crypto positioning this week. Crypto perps on the account trade into the Fed decision 24/7, so the leverage and loss limits set on the account carry the positioning risk through Wednesday night.
Sources
macroFed, ECB and BOJ decide rates this weekThe Fed decides Wed 19:00 CET with a hold at 4.00% forecast, and the ECB and the Bank of Japan follow Thu and Fri; all three are seen holding
What happened
BigGo Finance says the Fed, the ECB and the BOJ are all seen holding rates at back-to-back meetings, and Bloomberg says gold edged higher after a weekly decline as the focus shifted to the Fed. A hawkish BOJ could lift the yen and unwind leveraged carry trades, per Paul Barron; gold's perp is 4017.7 (+0.71% over 24 h).
What it means today
Fed decision Wed 19:00 CET, press conference 19:30; GDP and core PCE Thu 13:30 CET, the ECB Thu 14:15 CET, the BOJ Fri 03:30 CET. Three rate decisions in three days hit every market on the account at once: the index and stock perps, gold, crypto perps and the tokenized treasuries and yield products.
Running story: The Fed on 28 Oct · since 26 Oct
equitiesMicrosoft, Alphabet and Amazon report this weekMicrosoft and Alphabet report Wed after the close and Amazon Thu, as Musk says debt markets have shut off money for firms without AI data-center revenue
What happened
Azure grew 43%, Google Cloud 82% and AWS 37%, and the three now face an earnings test as the Fed, the ECB and the BOJ decide rates, per Wu Blockchain; CNBC's playbook lists the week's reports. Musk said debt markets have "almost entirely shut off" access to money for companies without revenue independent of AI data centers, per @KobeissiLetter, and Apollo's Torsten Slok says AI credit spreads are widening enough to slow some projects, per Lisa Abramowicz.
What it means today
Microsoft and Alphabet report Wed after the US close, hours after the 19:00 CET Fed decision; Amazon follows Thu after the close. The hyperscalers' AI spending guidance moves the Nasdaq 100 perp, tokenized $MSFT, $GOOGL and $AMZN, and the AI-chip stocks such as $NVDA on the account, after the stock exchanges close.
Running story: AI earnings week · since 26 Oct
hyperliquid-defiHyperliquid Brazil perp falls after Lula re-electionLula's unexpected re-election sent Hyperliquid's Brazil ETF perp down before Brazil's market opened, with X posts putting the fall at 20% to 25%
What happened
Michael McDonough had the Hyperliquid Brazil ETF perp at 42.58 from 46 as Kalshi odds of a Bolsonaro win fell from 80% to 30%, a round trip to Friday's close; @KobeissiLetter then put Brazil's fall at 20% and @gumsays at 25% on Hyperliquid.
What it means today
Brazil's cash market and the EWZ ETF open today for the first time since the result; the 14:30 CET US open is where EWZ meets the perp's weekend price. Hyperliquid's stock and index perps price elections while exchanges are shut, so an agent with weekend access to them meets the move before the cash market does.