Daily report
Thursday 29 October 2026
5 stories
Published 07:05 CET
A data day after the Fed: core PCE and Q3 GDP at 13:30 CET are the first test of the Fed's hold, with Alphabet down and Microsoft up after hours and Amazon, Intel, Coinbase and Strategy reporting after the close.
Market snapshot
Calendar
- 29 OctAdvance GDP q/q3.2% · 1.5%
- 29 OctCore PCE Price Index m/m0.3% · 0.2%
- 29 OctAdvance GDP Price Index q/q3.2% · 6.2%
- 29 OctUnemployment Claims198K · 194K
- 29 OctMain Refinancing Rate2.65% · 2.65%
- 29 OctMonetary Policy Statement
- 29 OctEli Lilly and Company earningsEPS $5.38 · EPS $7.02 a year ago
- 29 OctMastercard Incorporated earningsEPS $5.14 · EPS $4.38 a year ago
- 29 OctMerck & Company, Inc. earningsEPS $2.12 · EPS $2.58 a year ago
- 29 OctCaterpillar, Inc. earningsEPS $7.12 · EPS $4.95 a year ago
- 29 OctShell PLC earningsEPS $3.54 · EPS $1.86 a year ago
- 29 OctLinde plc earningsEPS $4.52 · EPS $4.21 a year ago
- 29 OctTotalEnergies SE earningsEPS $4.11 · EPS $1.77 a year ago
- 29 OctAnheuser-Busch Inbev SA earningsEPS $1.14 · EPS $0.99 a year ago
- 29 OctBristol-Myers Squibb Company earningsEPS $1.21 · EPS $1.63 a year ago
- 29 OctAltria Group earningsEPS $1.51 · EPS $1.45 a year ago
- 29 OctTrane Technologies plc earningsEPS $4.74 · EPS $3.88 a year ago
- 29 OctECB Press Conference
- 29 OctAmazon.com, Inc. earningsEPS $2.01 · EPS $1.95 a year ago
- 29 OctIntel Corporation earningsEPS $0.28 · EPS $0.11 a year ago
- 29 OctGilead Sciences, Inc. earningsEPS $2.17 · EPS $2.47 a year ago
- 29 OctSandisk Corporation earningsEPS $46.19 · EPS $0.90 a year ago
- 29 OctStarbucks Corporation earningsEPS $0.73 · EPS $0.52 a year ago
- 29 OctStryker Corporation earningsEPS $3.56 · EPS $3.19 a year ago
- 29 OctStrategy Inc earningsEPS $21.50 · EPS $8.42 a year ago
- 29 OctCoinbase Global, Inc. earningsEPS ($0.16) · EPS $1.44 a year ago
- 30 OctBank of Japan decision
- 30 OctExxon, Chevron and AbbVie report
- 2 NovApple and Palantir report
- 3 NovAMD reports
Today’s stories
Open a story for context and sourcesmacroHotCore PCE and GDP test the Fed's hold todayCore PCE and Q3 GDP are due at 13:30 CET, the first data since the Fed held at 3.75%-4% with two votes for a hike
What happened
The Fed held at 3.75%-4% in a 10-2 vote, with Cook and Hammack voting for a hike, per CoinDesk; Warsh said inflation remains elevated and the Fed awaits more information on its path, per The Kobeissi Letter. Core PCE is forecast at 0.3% m/m after 0.2%, and GDP at 3.2% after 1.5%.
What it means today
Core PCE, Q3 GDP and jobless claims at 13:30 CET are the first data on December hike odds; they reach yields, the dollar, gold and the crypto perps before the US open. One print reprices the December hike for every market on the account at once, and the index, gold and crypto perps trade it the minute it lands, an hour before the stock open.
Running story: The Fed on 28 Oct · since 26 Oct
equitiesHotAlphabet falls 9% after hours, Microsoft rises 4%Alphabet fell 9% after hours on a revenue miss and $9.07B of negative free cash flow, while Microsoft rose 4% on 48% Azure growth, per CNBC
What happened
Alphabet missed on adjusted EPS and revenue and kept its $195B-$205B capex forecast; Microsoft beat, guided Azure to 49%-50% growth and plans over $50B of capex next quarter, per CNBC. Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.8% after the reports; the Nasdaq 100 perp is 29575 (-0.73%) and the Nvidia perp 214.11 (-2.18%).
What it means today
The 14:30 CET US open is the first cash session to price both reports; Amazon reports after the 21:00 CET close, with AWS growth of 37.8% expected. Hyperscaler spending sets the AI trade for the Nvidia perp, the Nasdaq 100 perp and the tokenized big-tech stocks on the account, and Amazon's numbers land after the bell, when only the perps trade.
Running story: AI earnings week · since 26 Oct
Sources
cryptoHotBitcoin dips below $80,000 on $335M of liquidationsBitcoin fell back below $80,000 as crypto liquidations hit $335M over 24 h and tech stocks dropped, per The Kobeissi Letter
What happened
About $80M of longs were liquidated in 30 minutes as BTC broke $80,000 and ETH $2,350, per @AshCrypto. The BTC perp is 80254 (-0.85% over 24 h) with funding at 0.00125% an hour and $3.47B of open interest; ETH is 2323.9 (-1.31%).
What it means today
Hourly funding runs into core PCE at 13:30 CET, the next test for crypto leverage; Coinbase and Strategy report after the 21:00 CET US close. The crypto perps on the account trade through the night, so a long flush resets leverage before the US data, and Coinbase and Strategy report on the same evening.
commoditiesOil slips as the US and Iran talk through mediatorsOil fell as traders weighed US-Iran talks through mediators against strike risks after the 3 Nov midterms, with WTI futures at $101.19, per Investing.com
What happened
WTI futures fell 1.6% to $101.19 and Brent 1.4% to $113.73, near six-month highs, per Investing.com; Vice President Vance reached out to Iran's Mohsen Rezaei to open a channel, per the WSJ, and an Iranian official called a Qatari draft unacceptable. Saudi Arabia was loading 9 supertankers, about 18 million barrels, at Ras Tanura and Juaymah, per @JavierBlas.
What it means today
Iran talks and strike headlines reach the WTI perp at any hour; the 14:30 CET US open is the first stock session to price them, with core PCE an hour before. The WTI perp on the account trades Gulf headlines around the clock, and oil feeds the inflation data the Fed is waiting on.
Running story: Gulf oil supply · since 2 Oct
macroECB decides today, Bank of Japan on FridayThe ECB decides at 14:15 CET with a hold at 2.65% forecast, and the Bank of Japan Fri 03:30 CET after a firm 2-year bond sale, per Bloomberg
What happened
Japan's 2-year bond sale drew firm demand before the BOJ decision, per Bloomberg. The ECB's press conference follows at 14:45 CET and the BOJ's at 06:30 CET Fri.
What it means today
The ECB at 14:15 CET lands 45 minutes after US core PCE; the Bank of Japan decides Fri 03:30 CET, while US stocks are shut and the perps trade. A BOJ surprise has moved the yen carry trade and every market with it before, and it lands overnight, when the index, gold and crypto perps on the account are the only ones open.
Running story: The Fed on 28 Oct · since 26 Oct