Daily report
Wednesday 4 November 2026
5 stories
Published 07:46 CET
Wednesday turns on the Democrats' midterm wins: stock futures fell and Treasuries rallied overnight, with ISM services and Arm and Qualcomm later today.
Market snapshot
Calendar
- 4 NovMcDonald's Corporation earningsEPS $3.36 · EPS $3.22 a year ago
- 4 NovNovo Nordisk A/S earningsEPS $0.81 · EPS $1.02 a year ago
- 4 NovUber Technologies, Inc. earningsEPS $0.94 · EPS $3.11 a year ago
- 4 NovCVS Health Corporation earningsEPS $1.62 · EPS $1.60 a year ago
- 4 NovCircle Internet Group, Inc. earningsEPS $0.40 · EPS $0.64 a year ago
- 4 NovISM Services PMI54.8 · 54.9
- 4 NovArm Holdings plc earningsEPS $0.22 · EPS $0.15 a year ago
- 4 NovQUALCOMM Incorporated earningsEPS $1.46 · EPS $2.56 a year ago
- 4 NovMcKesson Corporation earningsEPS $10.69 · EPS $9.86 a year ago
- 5 NovBank of England rate decision
- 6 NovUS payrolls for October
Today’s stories
Open a story for context and sourcesmacroHotDemocrats projected to win House; stock futures fallDemocrats are projected to win the House, and S&P 500 futures fell 1.1% and Nasdaq-100 futures 2% overnight, per CNBC
What happened
The 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 5 bp to 4.902% and the 2-year 6 bp to 4.55% as investors moved into bonds, per CNBC. AI shares led the overnight drop in futures on fear that Democrats slow the data-center build-out.
What it means today
The 15:30 CET US cash open is the first stock session to price the Democrats' midterm wins; ISM services at 16:00 CET is next for yields, as traders await the Treasury's refunding plan. The vote moves every market on the account at once: Hyperliquid's S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 perps priced the count overnight, and treasuries and yield products reprice with the bond rally.
Running story: The US midterms · since 2 Nov
Sources
equitiesTexas data-center moratorium risk weighs on AI stocksA Democrat won the Texas governorship, and Jefferies puts 13.3 GW of announced data-center projects at risk if the state's moratorium stays, per WSJ
What happened
Texas hosts about a quarter of the US data-center capacity due online by 2030, and Governor Abbott put a moratorium on construction on 21 Sep, per Bianco Research. Republicans keep the Texas House and Senate.
What it means today
The 15:30 CET US cash open prices the Texas result for AI-chip and data-center stocks; Arm and Qualcomm report after the 22:00 CET close. The AI trade sets the Nasdaq 100 perp and the $NVDA perp, and Hyperliquid's stock perps price Texas headlines before the bell.
commoditiesOil rises on Iran war uncertainty after the midtermsOil rose on Iran war uncertainty after Trump's Republicans faced an election rout, per Reuters
What happened
Trump acknowledged the Iran war is partly to blame for the Republican losses and said he does not regret starting it, per the WSJ. Iran's security council secretary called the US response to Iran's demands not satisfactory, after Brent fell 8% on Monday on talks hopes.
What it means today
Iran talks headlines reach the WTI perp at any hour; the 15:30 CET US cash open is the first stock session to price them after the vote. Oil feeds inflation and Fed hike bets, so the WTI perp sets the tone for yields, gold and the stock perps around the clock.
Running story: Gulf oil supply · since 2 Oct
commoditiesGold jumps over 2% on a softer dollar after the voteGold jumped over 2% on a softer dollar after the Democrats' midterm wins, per Investing.com, a day after it fell near $3,900 on Fed hike bets
What happened
The gold perp is at 4016.7, up 2.46% over 24 h. Gold had fallen near $3,900 on Tuesday as rising US yields and Fed hike bets weighed, per FXStreet.
What it means today
ISM services at 16:00 CET is today's US data on Fed hike bets; payrolls Fri 14:30 CET, with 65K forecast, are the week's test for gold and the dollar. Gold trades on the account next to the crypto and stock perps, and a softer dollar reaches all of them.
Running story: The US midterms · since 2 Nov
Sources
regulationCrypto braces for a Democratic Congress after the voteDemocrats surge toward Senate and House majorities, per CoinDesk, and Sherrod Brown's Ohio win deals a blow to crypto PAC Fairshake, per The Block
What happened
Polymarket priced a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 100%, per Wu Blockchain, which puts US crypto market-structure bills in question. Bitcoin is at 77905, up 1.65% over 24 h.
What it means today
The Senate count runs through European hours and reaches the crypto perps first; the 15:30 CET US open restarts spot bitcoin ETF and crypto-stock trading. A US policy reset reaches the crypto perps and crypto stocks such as $CRCL, which reports before today's open, and Hyperliquid's perps trade it at every hour.
Running story: The US midterms · since 2 Nov